MarketDigits

We've been tracking the Iran situation closely this month, from the oil-price swings around ceasefire hopes to Trump's rejection of an earlier proposal. The latest development, reported by Reuters on October 4 , adds a specific, numbers-backed update: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz a waterway responsible for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the war will not reopen until seven specific conditions are met.   What Iran Actually Said Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf , stated that the Strait of Hormuz "will not be opened" until seven conditions set out in a June interim agreement with the U.S. known as the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding are satisfied. "The position of the Islamic Republic of Iran is completely clear and firm," he said, according to Reuters. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi , added a specific and notable detail: if the conditions are accepted, Iran could reop...

With the November midterms approaching, two major economic announcements tied to the administration made headlines this week. One has already run into a factual dispute. The other remains an unfunded campaign promise with no official implementation plan. Here's what's verified, what isn't, and why the distinction matters. The Alaska Pipeline Claim That Fell Apart   According to CNN, the administration announced what it called "one of the largest energy projects in American history" an Alaska natural gas pipeline framed as a $54 billion investment from South Korea, per a statement from Senator Dan Sullivan's office. The announcement promised Alaskans thousands of dollars in savings on energy bills. Within days, CNN reports, South Korea disputed the characterization of the deal. By Friday, officials were describing Wednesday's joint announcement as "historic" while acknowledging South Korea had not actually signed anything. That's a meaning...

Diesel prices in the U.S. recently hit record highs, averaging $6.37 a gallon according to AAA data cited by The Hill. This week, the Group of Seven wealthy economies responded with one of their largest coordinated fuel releases in years a move that could ripple through everything from trucking costs to the broader inflation picture we've been tracking all month.   What Was Actually Agreed Detail Information Total Release 100 million barrels (oil + fuel) Timeline Over 4 months Diesel Priority Window First 20 days (frontloaded) Announced By French President Emmanuel Macron Diesel Price (US, pre-release) $6.37/gallon (AAA) Trigger US threat to ban diesel exports to Europe The G7 nations agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel products from their emergency reserves over the next four months, according to reporting confirmed by CNBC, the Associated Press, Financial Times, and multiple other outlets. French President Emmanue...

Hiring in the world's largest economy nearly ground to a halt in September, and Wall Street's response was relief rather than alarm. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that employers added just 29,000 jobs, far below forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. For investors who have spent weeks worrying about inflation and rate hikes, a softer labor market was, at least for one morning, welcome news. What the Report Showed Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected about 84,000 new jobs, a Reuters poll looked for 90,000, and Bloomberg said the figure missed every estimate in its survey. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.1% to 4.2%. The details were no kinder. Revisions removed 60,000 jobs from the previous two months: August was cut to 133,000 from 162,000, and July now shows a loss of 10,000. Wage growth cooled too, with average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, according to Benzinga. Trading Economics' breakdown...

Wednesday's inflation data came in lighter than expected normally the kind of news that eases pressure on bond yields. Instead, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level in 24 years this week, according to Schwab's market commentary. Today's September jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is the data point traders are waiting on to decide what happens next. What Happened With Inflation Instead, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its [highest level in 24 years this week]    According to Schwab, August's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index the Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in lighter than expected. Kiplinger's coverage described the broader tone around this week's data as dovish, and noted that rate hike odds for October fell meaningfully following the PCE release combined with cautious commentary from Fed officials and softer economic data. That's normally bond-friendly news. Lighter inflation plus lower rate hike odds...

Wall Street is heading into the close on Wednesday with two things on its mind: the Fed's favorite inflation gauge and Micron Technology. According to Bloomberg, US stocks paused ahead of both, with the inflation data key for interest rates and Micron's report key for the AI trade. Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the closing bell, and a big move in either direction could ripple into Asian chip stocks when markets open in the morning. The Numbers, Verified Across Sources What Micron guided (SEC filing): For the quarter ending in August, Micron told investors to expect revenue of $50 billion, give or take $1 billion, non-GAAP earnings of $31 per share, give or take $1, and a gross margin of about 86%. What analysts expect (Alphastreet, 33 analysts): Consensus sits at $31.56 per share on $51.20 billion in revenue, slightly above the top half of Micron's own guidance range. Estimates are wide, running from $28.04 to $37.44 per share for earnings and from...

Just days after we covered Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high, the bond market has pushed even further. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.6% this week, according to CNBC and Bloomberg, its highest level since June 2002. The 10-year yield touched a session high of 5.29%, per CNBC. This isn't a new story so much as the same story intensifying and today brings the data release that could determine where it goes next. What's Different About Today  "Just days after we covered [Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high], the bond market has pushed even further."  Metric Figure Source 30-Year Treasury Yield Above 5.6% (highest since June 2002) CNBC, Bloomberg 10-Year Treasury Yield Session high 5.29% CNBC PCE Expectation (Headline) +0.3% MoM, 3.7% YoY Schwab, CNBC PCE Expectation (Core) +0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY Schwab, CNBC Brent Crude Below $103/barrel Bloomberg Consumer Confidence 81.9 (lowest since 2014) Edward Jones AMD-World L...