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Showing posts with the label Fed outlook

Russian Diesel Deal: What 4.8 Million Tons Really Means

On Friday, President Trump announced that Russia will supply large volumes of diesel to the U.S. and global markets after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Russian diesel the same day. With diesel prices at record levels, the headline numbers sound big. Here is what is confirmed and what isn't.  What Was Announced Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons right after that. A further 3 million tons would follow within a short period, he said, depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. Added together, the four tranches come to 4.8 million tons, while CNBC reported the total as more than 4 million. Trump predicted diesel prices would be "coming down, in record numbers, and fast," according to Axios. The Sanctions Waiver Shortly afterward, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General L...

Fed Minutes: Most Officials Expect Another Rate Hike by Year-End

Last week, a weak jobs report sent the odds of an October rate hike tumbling. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September meeting, and they carry a different message: the Fed isn't done raising rates, even if it isn't in a hurry. Here is what the minutes actually say, and what they don't. What the Minutes Said The minutes cover the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, where it raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike in more than two years. According to CNBC and AFP, the vote was unanimous. Bloomberg reported that all 19 officials who took part backed the decision, many of them to guard against the risk of intensifying inflation pressures. The key line for markets: most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, per the minutes as reported by AFP. Several officials also said the previous policy rate had not been restrictive enough to slow economic activity. ...