On Friday, President Trump announced that Russia will supply large volumes of diesel to the U.S. and global markets after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Russian diesel the same day. With diesel prices at record levels, the headline numbers sound big. Here is what is confirmed and what isn't. What Was Announced Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons right after that. A further 3 million tons would follow within a short period, he said, depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. Added together, the four tranches come to 4.8 million tons, while CNBC reported the total as more than 4 million. Trump predicted diesel prices would be "coming down, in record numbers, and fast," according to Axios. The Sanctions Waiver Shortly afterward, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General L...
Wednesday's inflation data came in lighter than expected normally the kind of news that eases pressure on bond yields. Instead, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level in 24 years this week, according to Schwab's market commentary. Today's September jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is the data point traders are waiting on to decide what happens next. What Happened With Inflation Instead, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its [highest level in 24 years this week] According to Schwab, August's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index the Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in lighter than expected. Kiplinger's coverage described the broader tone around this week's data as dovish, and noted that rate hike odds for October fell meaningfully following the PCE release combined with cautious commentary from Fed officials and softer economic data. That's normally bond-friendly news. Lighter inflation plus lower rate hike odds...