On Friday, President Trump announced that Russia will supply large volumes of diesel to the U.S. and global markets after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Russian diesel the same day. With diesel prices at record levels, the headline numbers sound big. Here is what is confirmed and what isn't. What Was Announced Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons right after that. A further 3 million tons would follow within a short period, he said, depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. Added together, the four tranches come to 4.8 million tons, while CNBC reported the total as more than 4 million. Trump predicted diesel prices would be "coming down, in record numbers, and fast," according to Axios. The Sanctions Waiver Shortly afterward, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General L...
A week ago, markets were bracing for another Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as this month. Then Friday's jobs report landed the one we previewed as a potential market-mover and it missed expectations badly enough to flip the entire narrative. The probability of an October rate hike has collapsed from roughly 64% to about 23%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by multiple market outlets. The ripple effects are already visible from Tokyo to São Paulo. The Number That Changed Everything Friday's September jobs report came in well short of expectations, reigniting concerns about labor market softness rather than the inflation concerns that had been driving the Fed's hawkish tilt. Markets reacted immediately: Treasury yields, which had been climbing toward multi-decade highs for most of the month, eased overnight following the report. The 10-year yield, which touched 5.283% on Friday, was seeing overnight relief as trading opened this week. Metric Before Now ...