On Friday, President Trump announced that Russia will supply large volumes of diesel to the U.S. and global markets after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Russian diesel the same day. With diesel prices at record levels, the headline numbers sound big. Here is what is confirmed and what isn't. What Was Announced Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons right after that. A further 3 million tons would follow within a short period, he said, depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. Added together, the four tranches come to 4.8 million tons, while CNBC reported the total as more than 4 million. Trump predicted diesel prices would be "coming down, in record numbers, and fast," according to Axios. The Sanctions Waiver Shortly afterward, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General L...
Wednesday's inflation data came in lighter than expected normally the kind of news that eases pressure on bond yields. Instead, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level in 24 years this week, according to Schwab's market commentary. Today's September jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is the data point traders are waiting on to decide what happens next.
What Happened With Inflation
Instead, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to its [highest level in 24 years this week]
According to Schwab, August's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index the Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in lighter than expected. Kiplinger's coverage described the broader tone around this week's data as dovish, and noted that rate hike odds for October fell meaningfully following the PCE release combined with cautious commentary from Fed officials and softer economic data.
That's normally bond-friendly news. Lighter inflation plus lower rate hike odds would typically pull yields down, not push them to multi-decade highs.
So Why Did Yields Keep Climbing?
Schwab's reporting points to the answer: traders are looking past August's soft inflation number toward today's jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed again on Thursday as markets positioned for whatever September's employment data reveals, effectively treating the PCE report as old news already priced in.
This is a pattern we've highlighted before: markets often react less to what already happened and more to what they expect is coming next. With a major data release just a day away, Wednesday's inflation relief got overshadowed almost immediately.
What's Expected Today
a wide enough spread that the actual number could move markets meaningfully in either direction, exactly the kind of outcome [we flagged when previewing this week's key events].
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary for September this morning. Per Schwab's consensus figures, unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, with wages up 0.3% month-over-month. Estimates for nonfarm payroll growth vary across sources, ranging from roughly 50,000 (Barclays' forecast, cited by Kiplinger) to the mid-80,000s to low-90,000s range cited elsewhere a wide enough spread that the actual number could move markets meaningfully in either direction.
| Metric | Figure | Source |
| Unemployment Rate (Expected) | 4.1% (steady) | Schwab |
| Wage Growth (Expected) | +0.3% month-over-month | Schwab |
| Nonfarm Payrolls Estimate | 50,000 to 85,000-95,000 (range) | Barclays/Kiplinger, others |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 197,000 (below 200,000 expected) | Yahoo Finance |
| September Job Cuts (Challenger) | ~43,000 (down 20% YoY) | Schwab, Yahoo Finance |
| 30-Year Treasury Yield | 24-year high | Schwab |
Supporting data released ahead of the report offered some reassurance: weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, below the 200,000 expected, according to Yahoo Finance, marking a fourth straight weekly decline. Separately, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced job cuts fell to roughly 43,000 in September, down 20% from a year earlier.
The "Good News Is Bad News" Problem, Again
Schwab's commentary flagged that higher-than-expected wage growth specifically could reignite the inflation concerns that eased after Wednesday's PCE report. This is the same dynamic we've covered throughout this volatile stretch: a genuinely strong labor market can spook markets precisely because it gives the Fed more room to keep rates elevated, even while a weak labor market raises separate concerns about the broader economy slowing.
There's no clean "good" outcome here from a pure market-reaction standpoint only degrees of how each scenario gets interpreted.
What This Means for You
If you're watching mortgage rates or planning a major loan, today's report is one of the more consequential data points of the entire month for determining where borrowing costs head next. If you're a long-term investor, the more durable lesson remains consistent with everything we've covered this quarter: single data releases, however significant the headlines, are noise that a properly diversified, multi-year portfolio is built to absorb.
Bottom Line
Inflation cooled, rate-hike odds eased, and yet Treasury yields still climbed to a 24-year high a reminder that markets are forward-looking even when the most recent data is favorable. Today's jobs report is the next major test, and given how wide the forecasts range, it's genuinely uncertain which direction the surprise lands.
This post is for general informational purposes and isn't personalized investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment or borrowing decisions.
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