Four of Wall Street’s biggest banks report third-quarter results before the opening bell on Tuesday, and options traders are bracing for moves of roughly 3.7% to 5% in their stocks, according to Benzinga. But analysts do not agree on what the banks will earn. Estimates for Goldman Sachs alone range from $12.44 to $14.84 per share, a gap of about 19% by our calculation, which means whether Goldman “beats” may depend on which benchmark you use. This follows our earlier preview of the big banks' third-quarter earnings, which covered the consensus numbers and the yield backdrop. Analysts Don’t Agree on Goldman LSEG consensus puts third-quarter earnings at $5.94 per share for JPMorgan, $12.44 for Goldman Sachs, $2.41 for Citigroup and $1.85 for Wells Fargo, according to Mitrade. Other trackers are higher for some banks. Fiscal.ai data cited by Stocktwits show $14.84 for Goldman on revenue of $17.92 billion, $2.69 for Citi on $23.5 billion, and $5.95 for JPMorgan on $51.16 billion. Tra...
The Strait of Hormuz standoff just escalated from a diplomatic impasse into active military confrontation on the water. According to CBS News, U.S. Central Command confirmed it has destroyed 13 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 12 weeks, accusing the ships of either violating the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports or operating as part of what the U.S. calls Iran's "shadow fleet." Despite this intensifying conflict, oil prices have been easing a counterintuitive combination worth unpacking with the numbers behind it. The Standoff, By the Numbers Metric Figure Ships Destroyed by US Forces 13 vessels Time Period 12 weeks Average Rate ~1 vessel/week Global Oil/LNG Share via Hormuz ~20% Iran's Reopening Conditions 7 If Conditions Met Reopens in 7 days G7 Reserve Release 100M barrels / 4 months Fed October Hike Odds 64% to 23% What's Actually Happening on the Water The [G7's coordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel...