Four of Wall Street’s biggest banks report third-quarter results before the opening bell on Tuesday, and options traders are bracing for moves of roughly 3.7% to 5% in their stocks, according to Benzinga. But analysts do not agree on what the banks will earn. Estimates for Goldman Sachs alone range from $12.44 to $14.84 per share, a gap of about 19% by our calculation, which means whether Goldman “beats” may depend on which benchmark you use. This follows our earlier preview of the big banks' third-quarter earnings, which covered the consensus numbers and the yield backdrop. Analysts Don’t Agree on Goldman LSEG consensus puts third-quarter earnings at $5.94 per share for JPMorgan, $12.44 for Goldman Sachs, $2.41 for Citigroup and $1.85 for Wells Fargo, according to Mitrade. Other trackers are higher for some banks. Fiscal.ai data cited by Stocktwits show $14.84 for Goldman on revenue of $17.92 billion, $2.69 for Citi on $23.5 billion, and $5.95 for JPMorgan on $51.16 billion. Tra...
A week ago, markets were bracing for another Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as this month. Then Friday's jobs report landed the one we previewed as a potential market-mover and it missed expectations badly enough to flip the entire narrative. The probability of an October rate hike has collapsed from roughly 64% to about 23%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by multiple market outlets. The ripple effects are already visible from Tokyo to São Paulo. The Number That Changed Everything Friday's September jobs report came in well short of expectations, reigniting concerns about labor market softness rather than the inflation concerns that had been driving the Fed's hawkish tilt. Markets reacted immediately: Treasury yields, which had been climbing toward multi-decade highs for most of the month, eased overnight following the report. The 10-year yield, which touched 5.283% on Friday, was seeing overnight relief as trading opened this week. Metric Before Now ...