On Friday, President Trump announced that Russia will supply large volumes of diesel to the U.S. and global markets after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Russian diesel the same day. With diesel prices at record levels, the headline numbers sound big. Here is what is confirmed and what isn't. What Was Announced Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons right after that. A further 3 million tons would follow within a short period, he said, depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. Added together, the four tranches come to 4.8 million tons, while CNBC reported the total as more than 4 million. Trump predicted diesel prices would be "coming down, in record numbers, and fast," according to Axios. The Sanctions Waiver Shortly afterward, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General L...
The Strait of Hormuz standoff just escalated from a diplomatic impasse into active military confrontation on the water. According to CBS News, U.S. Central Command confirmed it has destroyed 13 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 12 weeks, accusing the ships of either violating the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports or operating as part of what the U.S. calls Iran's "shadow fleet." Despite this intensifying conflict, oil prices have been easing a counterintuitive combination worth unpacking with the numbers behind it. The Standoff, By the Numbers Metric Figure Ships Destroyed by US Forces 13 vessels Time Period 12 weeks Average Rate ~1 vessel/week Global Oil/LNG Share via Hormuz ~20% Iran's Reopening Conditions 7 If Conditions Met Reopens in 7 days G7 Reserve Release 100M barrels / 4 months Fed October Hike Odds 64% to 23% What's Actually Happening on the Water The [G7's coordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel...