MarketDigits

Just days after we covered Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high, the bond market has pushed even further. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.6% this week, according to CNBC and Bloomberg, its highest level since June 2002. The 10-year yield touched a session high of 5.29%, per CNBC. This isn't a new story so much as the same story intensifying and today brings the data release that could determine where it goes next. What's Different About Today  "Just days after we covered [Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high], the bond market has pushed even further."  Metric Figure Source 30-Year Treasury Yield Above 5.6% (highest since June 2002) CNBC, Bloomberg 10-Year Treasury Yield Session high 5.29% CNBC PCE Expectation (Headline) +0.3% MoM, 3.7% YoY Schwab, CNBC PCE Expectation (Core) +0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY Schwab, CNBC Brent Crude Below $103/barrel Bloomberg Consumer Confidence 81.9 (lowest since 2014) Edward Jones AMD-World L...

Wall Street closed lower on Monday, and Tuesday opened quiet rather than calm. US stocks were little changed in early trading, European shares edged higher, and Asia ended mixed, with Japan the weak spot. The common thread is the same one behind most of this month's volatility: Treasury yields. The Numbers, Verified Across Sources Monday's close (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Zacks): The S&P 500 dropped roughly 0.8% to 7,683.69. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 300 points. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 3.55 to 1, and the VIX volatility index rose 8.1% to 16.07. Tuesday's early picture (CNBC): Futures were close to flat overnight, with Dow futures up only 19 points. Once trading began, stocks were little changed and the Dow was down about 50 points, or 0.1%. Treasury yields (CNBC): The 10-year yield was around 5.26%, still near levels not seen since 2007. The 30-year yield was near 5.59%, close to...

A few days ago, we covered how the Trump-Xi summit generated plenty of spectacle but comparatively little concrete substance. That assessment now has a genuine counterpoint. The U.S. and China have agreed to pursue tariff cuts on $60 billion worth of goods traded between the two countries the kind of specific, verifiable progress that was largely missing from the summit itself. What Was Actually Agreed Detail Information Total Trade Value Covered $60 billion ($30B from each side) US Products Included Corn, cosmetics China Products Included Toys, household appliances US Export Access Unlocked ~30% of US exports to China Broader Tariff Truce Extended through January 2027 Still Unresolved Soybeans, chip export controls, tech transfer rules According to Japan Times, both countries have each recommended $30 billion of trade in "nonsensitive goods" for more favorable tariff treatment, under what's being called the U.S.-China Board of Trade. U.S....

Wall Street closed lower on Monday, and futures pointed to more losses on Tuesday. This time, it isn't just a U.S. story. Markets across Asia fell right alongside it, tied together by the same culprit that's driven most of this month's volatility: Treasury yields. The Numbers, Verified Across Sources   Monday's close (confirmed by CNBC and Yahoo Finance): The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.7% to 51,481.51. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 0.8% to 7,683.69. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 0.9%, closing at 26,820.38. Tuesday's early picture (CNBC): Dow futures were down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.42% ahead of the open, as investors tried to recover from Monday's session. Treasury yields (confirmed by Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance): The 10-year yield climbed to roughly 5.26-5.27%, a fresh 19-year high. The 30-year yield pushed to around 5.55%, according to Bloomberg. Index Region Move Dow Jones U...

Monday’s rejection of an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has put oil markets back under pressure. Reuters and Euronews reports published Monday point to renewed risks for global energy supplies, with investors also watching what higher oil prices could mean for inflation, interest rates and financial markets. What Trump Rejected According to Reuters, President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s proposal involved a seven-day truce and reopening the strategically important shipping route, while Iran has said reopening the strait depends on conditions including an easing of U.S. military pressure and the lifting of the naval blockade. Trump said Iran wants a deal, but not the deal he wants. At the same time, Trump indicated that further negotiations could take place this week. Euronews reported that indirect talks between Washington and Tehran could potentially resume, although the two sides rem...

Last week's surge in Treasury yields has mostly been discussed in terms of mortgages and Fed policy. A CNBC report published Sunday points to another place it's being felt: the companies borrowing heavily to build AI data centers. What Yields Did Last Week According to CNBC, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.23% last week, its highest since June 2007. The 30-year yield touched 5.53%, and the 2-year topped 4.90% at one point. Edward Jones separately noted that the 10-year yield rose more than 0.4 percentage points in September, reaching its highest level since 2007. Why This Matters for AI Much of the AI infrastructure buildout is funded with borrowed money. CNBC cited JPMorgan's June estimate that $4.1 trillion in AI-related debt will be issued through 2030, as data center companies race to add capacity. CNBC's read is that the buildout isn't slowing, but higher yields make it more expensive. A concrete example: CNBC reports that SoftBank, a major pro...