On Friday, President Trump announced that Russia will supply large volumes of diesel to the U.S. and global markets after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Russian diesel the same day. With diesel prices at record levels, the headline numbers sound big. Here is what is confirmed and what isn't. What Was Announced Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons right after that. A further 3 million tons would follow within a short period, he said, depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. Added together, the four tranches come to 4.8 million tons, while CNBC reported the total as more than 4 million. Trump predicted diesel prices would be "coming down, in record numbers, and fast," according to Axios. The Sanctions Waiver Shortly afterward, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General L...
Wall Street’s third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest on Tuesday, October 13, when four of the six largest US banks report results. The timing is delicate: the 10-year Treasury yield was approaching 5.35% on Thursday, its highest level since 2002, according to Investrade, and oil is hovering near $100 a barrel. Because banks sit at the center of lending, dealmaking and consumer spending, their results double as a health check on the economy.
What the Banks Are Expected to Report
Reuters reports that third-quarter earnings are expected to rise as much as 20% from a year earlier for the largest banks, with investment banking and trading revenue significantly higher and no signs of deterioration in credit quality. LSEG estimates as of October 7 call for JPMorgan to earn $5.94 per share versus $5.07 a year ago, Citigroup $2.41 versus $2.24, Wells Fargo $1.85 versus $1.66, and Goldman Sachs $12.44 versus $12.25. By our calculation, that implies growth of roughly 17%, 8%, 11% and 2%.
Other estimates differ slightly. Seeking Alpha cites a Street consensus of $5.90 and $51.5 billion in revenue for JPMorgan, while Alphastreet cites $5.93 on $51.19 billion from 12 analysts.
| Bank | Q3 2026 Est. EPS | Q3 2025 EPS | Expected Change* |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | $5.94 | $5.07 | +17.2% |
| Citigroup | $2.41 | $2.24 | +7.6% |
| Wells Fargo | $1.85 | $1.66 | +11.4% |
| Goldman Sachs | $12.44 | $12.25 | +1.6% |
*Our calculation. Source: Reuters (LSEG estimates).
Why Yields Are the Main Worry
Reuters says investors will scrutinize whether the recent spike in Treasury yields could curb dealmaking and lending growth and raise funding costs across the industry. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point last month, and with the 10-year near multi-decade highs, any commentary on loan demand and deposit costs could move bank stocks.
Where the Pressure Points Are
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told investors last month to expect a muted third quarter, Reuters reported. Wells Fargo, by contrast, expects 2026 loan growth to beat its earlier forecast and sees healthy spending and credit trends, according to CFO Mike Santomassimo, while Citigroup plans to increase share buybacks this year. Reuters added that cooling investment banking prospects have some analysts asking whether banks with large retail operations may look more attractive than pure investment banks. RiskStock reports that JPMorgan expects investment banking and markets revenue to rise in the mid-to-high teens, versus single-digit growth at Citi.
A Strong Track Record, With a Caveat
Last quarter, the banks delivered big beats. According to Trader Central, JPMorgan earned $7.70 per share against a $5.44 consensus, on revenue of $57.3 billion versus $48.8 billion expected, and Wells Fargo earned $2.00 versus $1.72. Yet the same source noted that stocks stayed within a normal single-digit range on earnings day, because options markets had already priced in wide moves. A beat, in other words, is not a guarantee of a rally.
The Bigger Picture
FactSet expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 29.1% in the third quarter on 12.1% revenue growth, and estimates rose during the quarter, which is unusual, according to JorgAI. The Fed’s October 27-28 meeting falls in the middle of the season. The S&P 500 was trading near 7,792 on Friday morning, per Investrade, just below the record close of 7,818.93 set on Tuesday, TheStreet reported.
What to Watch
JPMorgan reports first, at about 7:00 a.m. ET, with a call at 8:30 a.m., according to RiskStock. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will look for net interest income and deposit costs, the investment banking pipeline, loan-loss provisions and buyback plans. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on October 14, and U.S. Bancorp and Charles Schwab on October 15.
| Date | Banks Reporting | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 13 | JPMorgan Chase (about 7:00 a.m. ET), Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup | Reuters, RiskStock |
| Wed, Oct 14 | Bank of America, Morgan Stanley | Reuters |
| Thu, Oct 15 | U.S. Bancorp, Charles Schwab | RiskStock |
What This Means for You
Bank earnings are among the clearest reads on how consumers and businesses are coping with higher borrowing costs. For long-term investors, the useful signals are credit quality and loan demand rather than a single day’s stock move, since last quarter showed that big beats don’t always lift prices. Diversification remains a steadier approach than trading around earnings headlines.
This post is for general informational purposes and isn’t personalized investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Estimates are as of October 7-9, 2026, and may change.
Sources: Reuters (via Investing.com), LSEG, Seeking Alpha, Alphastreet, RiskStock, Trader Central, JorgAI (citing FactSet), Investrade, TheStreet.
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