Global oil markets faced renewed uncertainty on Monday after deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia's main international airport, fresh tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and overnight airstrikes in Yemen intensified concerns about Middle Eastern energy supplies. However, crude prices fluctuated as investors weighed the regional security risks against a separate US-Russia diesel supply agreement and President Donald Trump's announcement of a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Deadly Attacks Raise Middle East Tensions Saudi Arabia's King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh suffered repeated attacks over the weekend, with a combined reported toll of 14 deaths and more than 320 injuries. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement claimed responsibility for the attacks. The airport disruption also raised concerns about aviation safety and the possibility of further regional escalation. Separately, overnight airstrikes struck areas of Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Houthi-ru...
Bank Earnings Start Tomorrow 13 October 2026: What Options Traders and Analysts Expect From JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo
Four of Wall Street’s biggest banks report third-quarter results before the opening bell on Tuesday, and options traders are bracing for moves of roughly 3.7% to 5% in their stocks, according to Benzinga. But analysts do not agree on what the banks will earn. Estimates for Goldman Sachs alone range from $12.44 to $14.84 per share, a gap of about 19% by our calculation, which means whether Goldman “beats” may depend on which benchmark you use.
Analysts Don’t Agree on Goldman
LSEG consensus puts third-quarter earnings at $5.94 per share for JPMorgan, $12.44 for Goldman Sachs, $2.41 for Citigroup and $1.85 for Wells Fargo, according to Mitrade. Other trackers are higher for some banks. Fiscal.ai data cited by Stocktwits show $14.84 for Goldman on revenue of $17.92 billion, $2.69 for Citi on $23.5 billion, and $5.95 for JPMorgan on $51.16 billion. Trav’s Trades, a market newsletter, reports Goldman’s estimate was cut 10% in 30 days to $14.78, while Bank of America’s fell 7% to $1.11 and Morgan Stanley’s 3% to $3.07.
| Bank | LSEG EPS | Other EPS Estimates | Revenue Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | $5.94 | $5.90 to $5.95 | $51.16B to $51.5B |
| Goldman Sachs | $12.44 | $12.90 to $14.84 | $17.92B |
| Citigroup | $2.41 | $2.66 to $2.69 | $23.5B to $23.7B |
| Wells Fargo | $1.85 | $1.85 | N/A |
Sources: Mitrade (LSEG), Seeking Alpha, Fiscal.ai via Stocktwits, Trav's Trades, TradingView.
What Options Are Pricing In
Benzinga data show implied earnings-day moves of 3.65% for JPMorgan, 3.87% for Bank of America, 4.15% for Citigroup, 4.27% for Goldman, 4.44% for Morgan Stanley and 5.00% for Wells Fargo, and said options traders expect contained reactions. TradingView, citing Seeking Alpha, put JPMorgan’s implied move near 4.4%, compared with a 10-year average earnings-day move of 3.4%, so figures vary with timing. Trav’s Trades noted that the actual peak move has beaten the implied move in 75% of reports for Citi and Wells Fargo and 81% for Morgan Stanley.
A Strong Record, but Beats Don’t Guarantee Gains
All five big banks beat expectations last quarter, CNBC reported. JPMorgan posted revenue of $58.02 billion versus $50.19 billion expected, Goldman earned $20.98 per share, Citi earned $3.15 on $24.77 billion in revenue, and Bank of America earned $1.21 on $31.7 billion.
History adds a caveat. Bespoke Investment Group data cited by CNBC TV18 show JPMorgan beats analyst estimates 82% of the time, yet its shares fell after four of its last five reports. Goldman has topped expectations for 12 straight quarters, CNBC TV18 added.
| Bank | Implied Move | Track Record |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan (Tue) | ±3.65% | Beats estimates about 82% of the time; shares fell after 4 of last 5 reports |
| Goldman Sachs (Tue) | ±4.27% | Topped expectations for 12 straight quarters |
| Citigroup (Tue) | ±4.15% | Beat consensus in 18 of the past 20 quarters |
| Wells Fargo (Tue) | ±5.00% | Q2: EPS $2.00 vs $1.72 expected |
| Bank of America (Wed) | ±3.87% | Beat EPS estimates in each of the past 8 quarters |
| Morgan Stanley (Wed) | ±4.44% | Reports Wednesday, Oct 14 |
Sources: Benzinga (implied moves), CNBC TV18 and Bespoke, CNBC and StreetAccount, TradingView.
The Catch: Expenses and Yields
CNBC TV18 quoted analysts who expect JPMorgan to guide expenses higher next year. Trav’s Trades warned that a bigger expense forecast without matching revenue is a classic “beat but sell” setup. Yields are another backdrop: the 10-year Treasury approached 5.35% last Thursday, its highest since 2002, according to Investrade. Mitrade reported that bank stocks have fallen about 7.5% over the past month, even with the S&P 500 about seven points from its record close.
What Comes Next
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Wednesday, when September CPI is also due. Mitrade cites a consensus of 3.7% year over year, though we have not confirmed that figure with a second source. Stocktwits also flagged a closely watched speech from the Fed’s Kevin Warsh this week. U.S. Bancorp and Charles Schwab report Thursday, per RiskStock.
What This Means for You
Bank earnings are a read on how borrowers cope with high rates, but a single day’s stock move can mislead. Look for credit quality, loan demand and expense guidance rather than the headline beat, and remember that estimates differ by provider. Diversification is a steadier approach than trading around earnings.
This post is for general informational purposes and isn’t personalized investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Estimates and implied moves are as of October 12, 2026, and may change.
Sources: Benzinga, CNBC, CNBC TV18 (via TradingView), Mitrade (LSEG data), Stocktwits (Fiscal.ai data), Seeking Alpha (via TradingView), Trav’s Trades, Investrade, RiskStock.
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