Oil Market on Edge After Deadly Riyadh Airport Attacks and Hormuz Tanker Strikes; Brent Trades Above $100

Global oil markets faced renewed uncertainty on Monday after deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia's main international airport, fresh tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and overnight airstrikes in Yemen intensified concerns about Middle Eastern energy supplies.

However, crude prices fluctuated as investors weighed the regional security risks against a separate US-Russia diesel supply agreement and President Donald Trump's announcement of a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.

Deadly Attacks Raise Middle East Tensions

Saudi Arabia's King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh suffered repeated attacks over the weekend, with a combined reported toll of 14 deaths and more than 320 injuries.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement claimed responsibility for the attacks. The airport disruption also raised concerns about aviation safety and the possibility of further regional escalation.

Separately, overnight airstrikes struck areas of Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Houthi-run health authorities reported one death and 12 injuries, blaming Saudi Arabia for the strikes.

These incidents are separate, and their casualty figures should not be combined.

Strait of Hormuz Tanker Incidents Add Supply Risks

Oil traders are also monitoring maritime security after two tanker incidents were reported over the weekend.

According to Reuters, citing the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, one tanker was struck by a drone near Oman's Sohar anchorage, while another vessel sustained damage from an unidentified projectile while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Two Indian sailors were also reported missing following a drone attack on a commercial tanker in the area.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important shipping route for energy exports from the Persian Gulf. Continued attacks could increase insurance expenses, disrupt vessel movements and complicate the recovery of regional crude exports.

Oil Prices Swing as Traders Assess Conflicting Developments

Crude oil initially gained as concerns about Middle Eastern supply intensified.

An early Reuters report showed Brent crude futures rising to $105.48 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate reached $92.44.

However, prices subsequently declined as markets considered the possibility of additional Russian fuel supplies.

By 08:21 GMT, Reuters reported Brent at $104.50 and WTI at $91.45.

Oil Benchmark	Early Report	Later Report
Brent Crude	$105.48	$104.50
WTI Crude	$92.44	$91.45

Source: Reuters, October 12, 2026. Prices in USD per barrel. The later report reflects approximately 08:21 GMT. Figures are intraday observations, not closing prices.

These figures represent different reporting times during the same trading session, not official closing prices.

The contrasting movements highlight how quickly energy markets can react to geopolitical announcements, supply expectations and changing security conditions.

Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal and Energy Ceasefire

President Trump announced a proposed arrangement under which Russia would immediately release more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and international markets, with further deliveries expected later.

Washington's temporary relaxation of restrictions on Russian diesel has drawn criticism because of the continuing war in Ukraine.

Trump also announced an energy ceasefire intended to stop Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other's energy infrastructure.

However, Ukraine subsequently accused Russia of continuing strikes on its energy facilities, raising questions about whether the proposed arrangement was being observed.

The potential market impact of the diesel deal remains uncertain. Russia's domestic fuel shortages and damaged refining capacity could limit how much additional supply reaches international buyers.

What Could Happen to Global Oil Prices?

Oil markets now face competing pressures.

Further attacks on Saudi infrastructure or commercial tankers could increase supply concerns and support crude prices. Conversely, improved shipping conditions or additional fuel exports could reduce some of the immediate pressure.

Goldman Sachs has reportedly increased its December Brent forecast from $85 to $90 per barrel while acknowledging significant upside risks from renewed Middle Eastern escalation.

These forecasts are estimates, not guaranteed future prices.

For India and other major energy importers, sustained high crude prices could increase import costs and create additional pressure on inflation, transportation expenses and trade balances.

Conclusion

The October 12 developments demonstrate how Middle Eastern security risks and international energy diplomacy are influencing oil markets simultaneously.

Investors should closely monitor developments around Riyadh, the Strait of Hormuz, Russian fuel exports and the proposed Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire.

With Brent trading above $100 during Monday's reported session, verified supply developments will remain important for understanding the direction of global energy markets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Oil prices and casualty figures may change as new information becomes available.